Bulk Shipping Watch Newsletter – December 2024

December 2024

Iron Ore & Steel

China Nov iron ore imports drop on expectation of weak seasonal demand

Source: Market Screener

China’s iron ore imports in November fell 1.91% from October, customs data showed on Tuesday, as shipments slowed ahead of the slow season for steel demand when colder weather disrupts construction work in the country’s north. FULL STORY

WEEKLY: China mills’ imported iron ore stocks at 10-m high

Source: Mysteel

The inventories of imported iron ore sintering fines held by the 64 Chinese steelmakers regularly sampled by Mysteel increased for the third straight week by another 282,200 tonnes or 2.3% on week over December 19-25, touching a 10-month high of 12.6 million tonnes, the latest survey results showed. FULL STORY

WEEKLY: China’s domestic iron ore concs output falls again

Source: Mysteel   

Production of iron ore concentrates by Chinese mining companies decreased during the past week, with maintenance stoppages among the mines in the country’s southwestern regions being mainly to blame for the output loss, Mysteel’s latest survey showed. FULL STORY

China Nov crude steel output falls on shrinking margins, demand

Source: Market Screener 

China’s crude steel output in November fell 4.3% from October, official data showed on Monday, dampened by tighter margins and seasonally weakening downstream steel consumption. FULL STORY

WEEKLY: China iron ore port stocks slip further

Source: My steel

Imported iron ore stocks at China’s major 45 ports under Mysteel’s regular survey had thinned for the second week to 148.6 million tonnes as of December 26, with the tonnage down by 1.1 million tonnes or 0.7% on week. The reduction was mainly caused by falling ore arrivals at these ports, Mysteel Global noted. FULL STORY

China’s steel demand may decrease to 850m tons

Source: China Daily

China’s steel demand may see a slight decrease of 1.5 percent to 850 million metric tons the next year, said the China Metallurgical Industry Planning and Research Institute on Friday. FULL STORY

Nearly 50% of Chinese BF mills declare they’re now making money on steel sales

Source: My steel

The number of profitable blast-furnace steel mills in China increased slightly during the past week, mainly thanks to the recovery in the country’s finished steel prices and the decrease in mills’ production cost, Mysteel Global learned. FULL STORY

Association: Major minerals output in China hits new high

Source: China Daily

China’s output of key mineral resources hit a new high this year with the extraction of 10 major nonferrous metals reaching a peak of 72.288 million metric tons in the first 11 months, a 4.4 percent year-on-year increase, the China Mining Association said on Monday. FULL STORY

WEEKLY: Chinese mills’ steel stocks slip slowly

Source: Mysteel

Inventories of the five major carbon steel products held by the Chinese steel mills sampled in Mysteel’s regular survey continued declining over December 20-26 to reach 3.5 million tonnes, though the on-week fall had slowed to 0.1%, as against the decrease of 3.4% during the prior week. FULL STORY

China reduced steel production by 4.3% m/m in November

Source: Steel Prices

In November 2024, China’s steel companies reduced steel production by 4.3% compared to the previous month and increased by 2.5% compared to November 2023, to 78.4 million tons. It is reported by Reuters. FULL STORY

Stuttering Chinese demand, elevated inventories depress ore: ING

Source: Steel Prices

Downside risks to iron ore pricing are likely to prevail in 2025 after the raw material has been the worst-performing industrial metal this year, with prices down 20% year to date, says ING. FULL STORY

WEEKLY: China’s HRC export prices slip amid holiday lull

Source: Mysteel

China’s export hot-rolled coil (HRC) prices softened over the past week, accompanied by subdued transactions for the China-origin flat product, Mysteel’s weekly market roundup shows. FULL STORY

Coal

Nation to maintain stable coal production

Source: China Daily

China’s coal consumption is forecast to grow moderately in 2025, with a slight increase over 2024 levels driven by higher electricity demand and stabilization in key industrial sectors, according to the China National Coal Association (CNCA). FULL STORY

MYSTEEL: Supply glut to suppress China’s met coal prices in ’25

Source: Mysteel

Chinese metallurgical coal prices are expected to move lower in 2025, with the price bottom in the year to shed another 10% from that in 2024, despite some periodical upticks that could be driven by favorable macroeconomic policies of the country, according to Mysteel’s latest forecast for the market for 2025. FULL STORY

GACC: China’s Nov thermal coal imports surge nearly 30% YoY

Source: Mysteel

China’s thermal coal imports in November jumped 29.4% on year to 41.28 million tonnes, data from the General Administration of Customs of China (GACC) showed, making for the highest monthly level since at least January 2009, Mysteel Global noted. FULL STORY

NBS: China coal output reaches record high in November

Source: Mysteel

China’s output of all types of coal in November reached 427.98 million tonnes, up by 3.9% from October, according to the latest release from China’s National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) on December 16. Total output last month hit an all-time high for any month ever as miners in key coal-producing regions extracted more of the fuel to keep pace with growing coal demand with winter beginning to set in. FULL STORY

Soybean

China’s grain purchase expected to reach 420 million tonnes in 2024: official

Source: China Daily

China’s State-owned grain reserve enterprises are expected to purchase around 420 million tonnes of grain from farmers and producers this year, which will mark the second consecutive year that the grain purchase volume is above 400 million tonnes. FULL STORY

China launches 10-year plan for grain industry development

Source: Tridge

China is developing a plan to boost the consumption of grain crops from 2024 to 2035, in an effort to improve production standards, expand research, and strengthen international cooperation. FULL STORY

China triples imports of Russian wheat

Source: Ukr Agro Consult

In 11 months of 2024, China imported Russian wheat by $86.5 mln, which is 2.9 times more than in the same period last year (by $29.9 mln). This is reported in the materials of the State Customs Administration (SCA) of the PRC, the Russian Interfax reports. FULL STORY

China’s palm oil players invited to explore opportunities in Malaysia

Source: The Edge Malaysia

Minister of Plantation and Commodities Datuk Seri Johari Abdul Ghani says he believes potential partnerships with Chinese companies based in Malaysia will be successful as feedstock is plentiful in the country while Chinese players have a wide market network. FULL STORY

China’s crop import curbs causing soybean shortage

Source: Ukr Agro Consult

The Chinese government’s efforts to limit agricultural imports this year are causing a soybean shortage in the south of the country by leading to longer-than-usual wait times at customs, according to traders with knowledge of the matter. FULL STORY

China’s breadbasket province hits record grain output

Source: China Daily

Northeast China’s Heilongjiang province, known as the country’s “grain barn”, produced about 80 million metric tons of grain this year, maintaining its role as China’s top grain producer for 15 years in a row, official data showed on Saturday. FULL STORY

World: Brazil expects to increase its sorghum exports to China from 2025

Source: Tridge

China’s imports of US agricultural products, particularly soybeans, hit a record low in 2018 due to tensions during the Trump administration’s first term. Since then, China has been diversifying its grain and soybean supply sources, including Brazil. With the expected change in government in 2025, there are concerns about new tariffs and a shift in soybean exports towards unknown destinations, fueling speculation of China stockpiling soybeans. The US dominates the global sorghum exports market, with 94% going to China. However, China is beginning to diversify its sorghum imports by turning to Brazil. Tariffs are more likely to affect higher-value commodities imported from Canada and Mexico. Drewry predicts that the new Trump presidency will lead to more trade instability, but China’s dependence on American grains and soybeans is not expected to be eliminated completely. FULL STORY

Major grain import and export markets by China from January to October 2024

Source: Tridge

The article provides an overview of China’s grain trade performance in the first 10 months of the year, revealing a significant decrease in both imports and exports compared to the previous year. Grain imports in October fell by 66.87% year-on-year to $433 million and by 5.36% to 38.1697 million tons, with the top ten countries accounting for 94.92% of these imports. Meanwhile, exports in the same period dropped by 12.91% year-on-year to $657 million and by 23.48% to 976,700 tons, with South Korea being the leading market for China’s grain exports, showing a notable increase of 75.28% year-on-year. Overall, this data highlights a downturn in China’s grain trade dynamics compared to the previous year. FULL STORY

China cuts 2024/25 corn production forecast in December outlook

Source: Ukr Agro Consult

China’s agriculture ministry lowered its forecasts for corn production for the 2024/25 crop year in its December outlook released on Tuesday. It estimated corn output at 293.84 million metric tons, down from 297.01 million tons in a previous forecast. FULL STORY

Energy

China’s oil refinery production in November increased by 0.2% year/year

Source: World Energy News

China’s refinery output in November increased slightly compared to last year, ending a seven-month drop, according to official data released on Monday. FULL STORY

China’s November crude oil imports recover, other commodities stay strong: Russell

Source: Zawya

It’s turning out to be a good week so far for China’s economy, with the outlook brightening amid pledges of new stimulus measures and commodity imports putting up a strong showing in November. FULL STORY

China’s recasting of UCO trade: Minimal impact on chemical shipping

Source: Drewry

China eliminated the 13% export tax rebate on the popular feedstock for biofuels-used cooking oil (UCO) on 1 December 2024, aiming to increase domestic supply as the country intends to implement a 2% Sustainable Aviation Fuel (SAF) blend requirement in 2025. This move will curb UCO exports and raise the UCO price globally, increasing the competitiveness of Chinese UCO-based biofuel. Furthermore, as the EU excludes SAF from imposing anti-dumping duties on Chinese imports in July 2024, it will increase the SAF export opportunities, supporting Chinese biofuel producers. FULL STORY

Asian naphtha prices to stay under pressure amid poor margins, new Chinese capacities

Source: S&P Global

The Asian naphtha market will continue to stay under pressure in 2025 on poor downstream margins amid several new capacities in China, market participants told S&P Global Commodity Insights, adding that the market will be keenly tracking the incoming Donald Trump administration in the US for any potential impact from a change in policies. FULL STORY

China’s oil consumption to peak by 2027

Source: The Daily Star

China’s oil consumption is set to peak by 2027, state refining giant Sinopec said on Thursday, as diesel and gasoline demand weaken in the world’s biggest oil importer, a slowdown that has rattled global oil markets this year. FULL STORY


China lifts fuel oil import tariff to 3% from 1%, effective Jan 1

Source: S&P Global

Tariff add $8-$14/mt tax cost

Fuel oil feedstock imports fall on rising tax costs, new crude import quotas FULL STORY

China’s CNOOC sold US assets to Britain’s INEOS

Source: World Energy News

CNOOC Ltd, a Chinese company, has sold its U.S. subsidiaries, along with its upstream oil assets and gas assets, in the Gulf of Mexico to British chemicals group INEOS. This was announced by CNOOC on Saturday. FULL STORY

China issues 2024 crude import quotas, 60% more than year earlier – trade

Source: Market Screener

China has released 179.01 million metric tons of crude import quotas for 2024, according to Chinese industry consultancies and trade sources on Tuesday, 60% more than the previous year. FULL STORY

China’s oil consumption peaked in 2023, CNPC says

Source: Market Screener

China’s refined oil consumption peaked in 2023 at 399 million metric tons (7.98 million barrels per day) and is expected to fall 1.3% to 394 million tons in 2024, CNPC Economics & Technology Research Institute said on Friday. FULL STORY

China’s thermal energy generation increased by 1.9% from Jan-Nov, despite a growth in renewables.

Source: World Energy News

Official data released on Monday showed that China’s fossil fuel power generation increased by 1.9% in the first eleven months of this year. This is despite the rapid expansion of renewable energy plants in the last few years. FULL STORY

China’s oil demand starts to decline after 2023, when it peaked.

Source: World Energy News

The oil products demand in China – long the driving force behind global crude consumption – peaked in 2023. It is expected to decline by 1.1% per year between 2023-2025. This drop will accelerate in the following years, according to a China oil analyst. FULL STORY